GfK: 2% advance for EU retail in 2019, with Romania leading the ranking | Progresiv
Market research company GfK anticipates a 2% increase in brick-and-mortar sales from the 27 EU countries analyzed (excluding the UK) in 2019 compared to the previous year. The highest growth rates are expected from Romania (7%) and Lithuania (almost 6%). 
The forecasted advance is slightly above the inflation rate and comparable to the growth rate reported last year compared to 2017 (1.9%). GfK also estimates an increase of 2.4% for Spain in 2019 compared to last year and 2.8% for France.
In 2018 Eastern European markets led the growth in physical retail sales, compared with the previous year, with Bulgaria (+ 7.7%), Czech Republic (+ 7.2%) and Romania (+ 7.1%) leading the ranking. Poland was in 5th position, at 5.9% after Hungary (+ 5.3%). For comparison, the large European Union markets as sales value, Germany, Spain, France reported modest sales growth in brick-and-mortar sales, just 1%, 3.6% and 2%, respectively while Italy was on a downward trend (-0.2%). These figures refer to the dynamics of euro sales in all countries included in the analysis.
Uncertainties and threats for to EU trade
Most European consumers are now divided between opposing forces. On one hand, there is Brexit's uncertainty, trade conflicts and weaker growth prospects in major export markets, such as China. But, on the other hand, Europe has a solid labor market, higher wage increases and moderate oil prices.
The collapse in energy prices, which began at the end of last year, is an indication that the inflation rate in the EU will fall, the GfK report shows. Together with the continued commercial litigation with the US, the weakening of the European economy in early 2019 has dampened the optimism of economists. As a result, an inflation rate of less than 1.6% for the European Union is expected in 2019. For Romania, the projected inflation for 2019 is 3.3%, one of the largest in Europe.
Purchasing power
In 2018, every citizen of the 27 countries surveyed had an average purchasing power of 16,878 euros. This is equivalent to a nominal increase of 3% over the previous year. The ten nations of the EU with the largest increase in purchasing power per capita this year have a purchasing power lower than the average.
Even if it is growing, the purchasing power in Romania is among the smallest in Europe. The situation is similar to that in Croatia, Bulgaria, Serbia, Montenegro, Bosnia - Herzegovina, Macedonia, Albania and Turkey.
GfK's geomarketing solution evaluated key European retail indicators and published detailed results in the European Retail study in 2019 which can be downloaded for free here in English.
